EIA: Coal Projections Range from Flat to Continuing Declines
While loaded coal barges can be seen on the Ohio River and rail cars full of coal are coming out of the coalfields of Southern West Virginia, recent and projected trends in coal production in the United States continue to decline or remain flat, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).
For the week ended Oct. 19, the EIA estimated U.S. coal production totaled about 13,000,000 short tons.
“This production estimate is 2 percent higher than last week’s estimate and 11.5 percent lower than the production estimate in the comparable week in 2018,” the report stated.
A spokesman for the coal industry remains positive, though.
“The previous administration spent eight years closing down coal-fired power plants, but I remain positive that the coal industry will be able to maintain, or even grow, its coal production going forward,” said Bill Raney, president of the West Virginia Coal Association.
U.S. year-to-date coal production totaled 573,000,000 short tons, 5.2 percent lower than the comparable year-to-date coal production in 2018, the EIA report showed.
In West Virginia, coal production was down 13,000 short tons, or 0.99 percent, for the week ended Oct. 19 from the previous week. It was down 995,000 short tons, or 1.3 percent, from the same week in 2018 and down 1,633,000 short tons, or 1.7 percent, from the previous year.
“We are down less than a percent for that week, which is the least amount of reduction for any of the main coal-producing states,” Raney said.
Raney said exports of metallurgical coal, which is used to make steel, remains flat but steady.
“The Chinese are sending more steel into Europe, which has caused a drop in exports there, but there is still a very strong market in India,” he said. “Hopefully, we will be able to maintain those export levels as well.”
Electric power generation accounts for more than 92 percent of U.S. coal demand and domestic coal production has declined significantly over the past decade as coal has been displaced significantly by natural gas and renewables in electric generation, the EIA said in its report, and added coal production projections could range from flat to continuing declines through 2040.
“Despite some reports, we remain positive and hope the metallurgical coal market in particular will stay consistent and strong,” Raney said.
Raney says America’s Transportation Infrastructure Act of 2019 could provide a boost for coal, if passed. It is the largest amount of funding provided for highway re-authorization legislation in history. The bill authorizes $287 billion from the Highway Trust Fund over five years in investments to maintain and repair America’s roads and bridges.
“This would require lots of metallurgical coal to make the steel needed for these roads and bridges,” he said.
The bill has bi-partisan support in Congress, but currently President Donald Trump and congressional Democrats remain stalemated over moving forward on the large infrastructure package that advocates and engineers say is urgently needed.
Source: The Herald-Dispatch
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