EIA Expects U.S. Fossil Fuel Production to Reach New Highs in 2023
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After declining in 2020, the combined production of U.S. fossil fuels (including natural gas, crude oil, and coal) increased by 2 percent in 2021 to 77.14 quadrillion British thermal units. Based on forecasts in its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), they expect U.S. fossil fuel production to continue rising in both 2022 and 2023, surpassing production in 2019, to reach a new record in 2023.
Of the total U.S. fossil fuel production in 2021, dry natural gas accounted for 46 percent, the largest share. Crude oil accounted for 30 percent, coal for 15 percent, and natural gas plant liquids (NGPLs) for percent%. EIA expects those shares to remain similar through 2023.
U.S. dry natural gas production increased by 2 percent in 2021, based on monthly data through October and estimates for November and December. In its forecast, improvements in drilling efficiency and new-well production will contribute to production increases of 3 percent in 2022 and 2 percent in 2023.
U.S. crude oil production dropped slightly, by an estimated 1 percent, in 2021, but they expect it to increase by 6 percent in 2022 and 5 percent in 2023. They forecast that, in 2022 and 2023, crude oil prices will remain high enough to encourage growth in the number of active drilling rigs and continued improvement in drilling efficiency.
U.S. coal production increased by an estimated 7 percent in 2021, driven by increased demand for coal because of rising natural gas prices. Coal’s comparatively lower prices made coal more economical for use in electric power generation compared with natural gas. In 2020, U.S. coal production had fallen to its lowest level since 1964. They forecast that coal production will increase 6 percent in 2022 as coal-fired electricity generators rebuild inventory levels. However, EIA forecasts that coal production will only increase by 1 percent in 2023 as demand for coal in the electric power sector declines.
U.S. NGPL production increased by 4 percent in 2021. They expect U.S. NGPL production to increase by 9 percent in 2022 and then by 4 percent in 2023. Because NGPLs are a coproduct of natural gas, its forecast for rising NGPL production is linked to their forecast for rising natural gas production.
About EIA
U.S. Energy Information Administration operates as the statistical and analytical agency within the United States Department of Energy. The agency collects, analyzes, and disseminates energy information in an attempt to promote sound policy making, efficient markets, and public understanding of energy and how it effects the economy and the environment.
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